Forex Trading Outlook: October 13-19, 2025
Key events and currency movements for the week, with a focus on GBP/USD. All times in EST. Volatility indicators: High, Medium, Low.
Key Economic Events
| Date/Time (EST) | Event | Currency | Forecast vs. Previous | Impact | Why It Matters / Potential Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 13, 5:00 AM | Eurozone Industrial Production (Aug) | EUR | +0.4% MoM (prev: +1.2%) | Medium | Manufacturing rebound key; beat lifts EUR/USD 20-30 pips amid ECB dovishness. |
| Mon, Oct 13, 8:00 AM | BoE’s Bailey Speaks | GBP | N/A | Medium | Hawkish bolsters GBP/USD to 1.41; dovish eyes 1.39 pullback. |
| Mon, Oct 13, 2:00 PM | FOMC’s Waller/Daly Speak | USD | N/A | Medium | Dovish reinforces 25bps Dec cut odds (~85%), pressuring DXY lower. |
| Tue, Oct 14, 2:00 AM | China IP & Retail Sales (Sep) | CNY (AUD/CAD) | IP: +4.6% YoY (prev: +4.5%); Retail: +3.0% (prev: +2.1%) | Medium | Weak China hits commodities; AUD/USD -30 pips on miss. |
| Tue, Oct 14, 5:00 AM | German ZEW Sentiment (Oct) | EUR | +5.0 (prev: -17.8) | Medium | Confidence bounce supports EUR/USD >1.085; miss adds downside. |
| Tue, Oct 14, 9:30 AM | US Retail Sales (Sep) | USD | +0.2% MoM core (prev: +0.5%) | High | Consumer strength; upside targets DXY 107.50. |
| Tue, Oct 14, 2:00 PM | US Industrial Prod (Sep) | USD | +0.3% MoM (prev: 0.0%) | Medium | Capacity use at 78.2%; miss weakens USD/JPY <148. |
| Wed, Oct 15, 6:00 AM | UK CPI (Sep) | GBP | Headline: +1.9% YoY (prev: +2.2%); Core: +3.2% (prev: +3.5%) | High | Sticky core >3.2% delays BoE cuts, GBP/USD +50 pips to 1.3120. |
| Wed, Oct 15, 9:30 AM | US CPI (Sep) | USD | Headline: +2.4% YoY (prev: +2.5%); Core: +3.1% (prev: +3.2%) | High | Sub-2.4% boosts cut bets, DXY to 103.50 (bearish USD). Hot core reverses. |
| Wed, Oct 15, 8:30 AM | Canada CPI (Sep) | CAD | +1.8% YoY (prev: +2.0%) | Medium | Trimmed-mean +2.3%; soft print aids BoC easing, USD/CAD to 1.3850. |
| Wed, Oct 15, 11:00 AM | ECB Minutes (Sep) | EUR | N/A | Medium | Dovish weakens EUR; hawkish on services lifts vs. USD. |
| Wed, Oct 15, 9:30 PM | Australia Employment (Sep) | AUD | +25K (prev: +34.9K); Unemp: 4.1% (prev: 4.2%) | Medium | Strong jobs hold RBA rates, AUD/USD >0.6800; downside risks 0.6750. |
| Thu, Oct 16, 2:00 AM | China GDP Q3 | CNY (AUD/CAD) | +4.5% YoY (prev: +4.7%) | High | Slowdown pressures risk assets; AUD -40 pips. |
| Thu, Oct 16, 9:30 AM | US PPI (Sep) | USD | +1.5% YoY core (prev: +1.6%) | High | Confirms CPI; hotter-than-expected bullish USD rebound. |
| Fri, Oct 17, 9:30 AM | US U. Michigan Sentiment Prelim (Oct) | USD | 68.0 (prev: 70.1); Inflation Exp: +2.6% (prev: +2.7%) | Medium | Lower sentiment + higher exp. weighs on USD; beat eases rate fears. |
| Fri, Oct 17, 7:50 PM | Japan Trade Balance (Sep) | JPY | -¥1.0T (prev: -¥0.4T) | Medium | Export weakness aids BoJ hike delay; USD/JPY to 150 on wider deficit. |
*Notes*: Columbus Day (Oct 13) reduces US liquidity; Canadian Thanksgiving and Japan Health & Sports Day may thin CAD/JPY volumes. Verify actuals on Myfxbook/Forex Factory.
Top Pair to Watch: GBP/USD
Why? UK CPI (Wed, 6:00 AM EST) drives volatility. Core CPI >3.2% delays BoE cuts, targeting 1.3150 (+50-80 pips). Miss <1.9% headline risks 1.2950. US CPI (9:30 AM EST) adds pressure.
Technical Setup: Ascending triangle at 1.31, RSI ~50. Breakout potential.
Volatility: 80-110 pips (highest among majors).
Trading Tips
- Entry: Post-CPI straddles, 20-pip stops. Bullish >1.3120; bearish <1.3050.
- Risk: 1% account risk, 2:1 reward (40-pip stop, 80-pip target).
- Watch: US CPI for counter-moves; DXY >103.50 caps GBP gains.
Market Themes
- USD: Bearish tilt on soft CPI; DXY support at 103.20.
- GBP: Bullish if CPI surprises; resistance at 1.3120.
- EUR: Neutral-bearish, EUR/USD support 1.08.
- AUD: China GDP risk-off; AUD/USD to 0.6750 on miss.
- JPY: Intervention watch at USD/JPY 150.
- Broader: US election noise, gold >$2,650 on USD dips.
Monitor Myfxbook or Forex Factory for live updates. Data as of Oct 13, 2025, 01:49 AM EDT.
